Цифры по участкам на выборах мэра Сочи
Apr. 27th, 2009 08:27 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
kireevПосмотрел цифры результатов выборов мэра Сочи по участкам. Досрочное голосование, конечно, явно помогло Пахомову. В экселе я расчитал, что корреляция между процентом досрочно проголосовавших и процентом за Пахомова приличная и положительная 0,52 (а у Немцова -0,50, у Дзагания -0,36). С долей проголосовавших вне помещений для голосования и процентом за Пахомова корреляция тоже положительная, но меньше 0,26 (и -0,22 у Немцова, и -0,27 у Дзагания). С общей явкой у Пахомова корреляция 0,51, а у Немцова и Дзагания опять-таки отрицательная -0,45 и -0,40 соответственно. Для сравнения, у "Единой России" корреляция с явкой была 0,9 на прошлых думских выборах - просто сумашедшая, но это в разрезе ТИКОв, а не по участкам, а по ТИКам она должна быть больше, так как затухают колебания которые часто бывают по отдельным участкам.
С одной стороны, эти данные говорят, что Пахомову действительно прилично помогли досрочники и в меньшей степени голосование на дому, с другой стороны, у меня практически нет сомнений, что Пахомов победил в первом туре и среди тех, кто голосовал на участках в день голосования, но с заметно более низким результатом. Собственно, лишь на одном участке его процент опустился ниже 50%. Ниже 60% он был на нескольких участках, расположенны прежде всего в центральной части Сочи, самой благоприятной для Немцова, и как раз на этих участках был низок процент досрочного голосования и голосования на дому. Я дважды просил у Яшина дать мне номера участков, где точно были их наблюдатели, где они наблюдали за процессом, и где они могут гарантировать, что протоколы правильные и как минимум отражают реальные цифры голосования на участке в день голосования. На основании этих точно верных данных, можно было бы прикинуть и картину по всему городу. Чисто мое личное подозрение: эти центральные районы Сочи, где был маленький процент досрочников, и подавляющее большинство голосовало именно на участке, и есть настоящие цифры - но именно по этим центральным районам. А они чисто социально-демографически более благоприятные для Немцова. За СПС в 1999 тут проголосовало 15,5%, (в Хостинском р-не 11,4%, в Лазаревском 8,6%, в Адлерском 9,4%; кстати, в Лахаревском р-не Немцов и сейчас меньше всего получил). И чисто мое подозрение, основанное на том, как уменьшался процент за Пахомова по мере увеличения доли проголосовавших на участках в день голосования, что Пахомов получил тут в районе 55-60%, а Немцов 25-30% и где-то в районе 10-12% у Дзагания. Собственно, я слово "подозрения" использую осторожно, а так-то на участках, где процент досрочников и голосовавших вне помещений минимален, цифры к этому и приближаются. Другие районы Сочи оценить сложнее, так как там уже слишком высок процент досрочников и голосовавших вне помещений. Но там в любом случае и в день голосования у Пахомова должно быть несколько больше, а у Немцова меньше. И, еще раз повторю, хорошо бы иметь больше фактов от наблюдателей на конкретных участках.
С одной стороны, эти данные говорят, что Пахомову действительно прилично помогли досрочники и в меньшей степени голосование на дому, с другой стороны, у меня практически нет сомнений, что Пахомов победил в первом туре и среди тех, кто голосовал на участках в день голосования, но с заметно более низким результатом. Собственно, лишь на одном участке его процент опустился ниже 50%. Ниже 60% он был на нескольких участках, расположенны прежде всего в центральной части Сочи, самой благоприятной для Немцова, и как раз на этих участках был низок процент досрочного голосования и голосования на дому. Я дважды просил у Яшина дать мне номера участков, где точно были их наблюдатели, где они наблюдали за процессом, и где они могут гарантировать, что протоколы правильные и как минимум отражают реальные цифры голосования на участке в день голосования. На основании этих точно верных данных, можно было бы прикинуть и картину по всему городу. Чисто мое личное подозрение: эти центральные районы Сочи, где был маленький процент досрочников, и подавляющее большинство голосовало именно на участке, и есть настоящие цифры - но именно по этим центральным районам. А они чисто социально-демографически более благоприятные для Немцова. За СПС в 1999 тут проголосовало 15,5%, (в Хостинском р-не 11,4%, в Лазаревском 8,6%, в Адлерском 9,4%; кстати, в Лахаревском р-не Немцов и сейчас меньше всего получил). И чисто мое подозрение, основанное на том, как уменьшался процент за Пахомова по мере увеличения доли проголосовавших на участках в день голосования, что Пахомов получил тут в районе 55-60%, а Немцов 25-30% и где-то в районе 10-12% у Дзагания. Собственно, я слово "подозрения" использую осторожно, а так-то на участках, где процент досрочников и голосовавших вне помещений минимален, цифры к этому и приближаются. Другие районы Сочи оценить сложнее, так как там уже слишком высок процент досрочников и голосовавших вне помещений. Но там в любом случае и в день голосования у Пахомова должно быть несколько больше, а у Немцова меньше. И, еще раз повторю, хорошо бы иметь больше фактов от наблюдателей на конкретных участках.
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Topic
Date: 2012-11-22 07:25 pm (UTC)How to Get to The Bottom with Fencing Contractors
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Induction Cooktop Models Of 2012 - Top Products Revealed
Date: 2012-11-24 11:43 am (UTC)Affordability is the main issue. If they would come down in price, more people would buy them. Energy efficiency is one reason why people get them, which has a lot to do with new control features that they all have. Induction cookers are typically more energy efficient than gas cooking, so with these new innovations, their energy efficiency levels are incomparable.
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. . Bare husk, at hvis den person, du taler med, i en butik ikke ved, så hvad vil du gøre ? hvis du ikke kender .. På et tidspunkt kan du nødt til at vælge, hvor du køber hegnet fra eller materialerne i nogle tilfælde afhængigt af hvad du får Grunden har at gøre med kvalitet, selv om Materialet er det samme, og en anden ting er, at et hegn entreprenør, der bekymrer sig om deres virksomhed vil gøre arbejdet . Og hvad du vil altid gøre, er at sørge for, at dem, der gør den egentlige installation er specialister .
. Når du begynder at se på, hvordan man finder en fremragende hegn entreprenør, så vil du sætte pris på dette endnu mere . Et andet vigtigt område er at fastlægge de bedste hegn materialer, og det er her en meget god entreprenør kan virkelig hjælpe dig .. Derfor du kan ikke stoppe her som der er mere til sagaen Når du begynder at forske mere, være sikker på at du finde ud af om nogen speciel jargon og det er bare det sprog hegn . .
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Date: 2012-11-25 11:11 pm (UTC)[url=http://2012monclerjackendeutschland.com]moncler[/url] Even if you ask questions that are very basic, it signals to the contractor that you have some knowledge. There are a bunch of little things that go into the entire package with a contractor such as how well they treat their potential customers. When you walk into their place of business you must have your radar turned on so you can catch the little things that may be dead giveaways about other important and bigger concerns. Think twice before you do business with any contractor who feels like it's necessary to try and strong arm you into that. You know that any contractor who does not hide anything is worth your time and possibly business. There have been some reports that materials from other countries are not the best quality for many reasons. There's more than just vinyl with chain link fencing, for example, and there are other materials that you want to know about. So those are just a few of the types of things you can discuss when you do meet up with a contractor.
[url=http://monclerjackegermany.com]moncler jacke[/url] If you are wondering about the price they give you for the fence and the installation, then see if that's the ideal amount. This is just one way to approach finding the best contractor, but not many people will challenge the quote. What you want to do is avoid those who are all too willing to be accommodating with another price. If you cannot justify why it should be lower, then that makes you potentially look bad.
Fencing contractors are not all created equal which is the central aspect to your challenge. But at some point you'll know whether or not you're talking to some you want to do business with. This is really the smart way to prepare yourself and you'll learn a lot that will serve you perhaps at a future date. Being helpful to you is their job, and those that value your business will try harder.
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Date: 2012-11-26 07:44 am (UTC). Men du er i stand til at læse og opdage hvad man skal kigge efter, og holde sig væk fra disse folk Vi taler om dette i flere detaljer i resten af artiklen, så betaler tæt. opmærksomhed .
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Hvis du er interesseret i en vinyl hegn, så spørg kontrahentens spørgsmål om det, men du vil have dem til at fortælle dig, at der ikke vil være nogen genbrugt vinyl i materialerne, overhovedet . Ud over det, ikke får lange sektioner af vinyl hegn, fordi det kan hænge og genanvendte vinyl vil gøre det værre . .
Hvad de skal bruge, er seks meter sektioner, fordi de ikke vil hænge over tid Men, behøver du ikke vil have dem til at vide, at du ved det, og du kan behændigt se, hvordan de svarer, at en med en hensigtsmæssigt formuleret spørgsmål . .
Alt om en top notch indhegning entreprenør afspejler viden, erfaring og vilje til at hjælpe dig med at forstå Ingen af de ting om at være i en fart eller give dig svar, der ikke er meget omfattende . Vær sikker på at spørge om alle faser af installationen fra forberedelse til at rydde op . Lad os sige du taler med en halv snes entreprenører, og hvis du så vær sikker på at gøre notater om hver enkelt . Det er ikke kun installationen udført af hegn entreprenør, men også hele vejen du vil være afhængig af gode råd . Vil du have jobbet gjort rigtigt første gang, og anden gang vil bare være forværring . Dette er årsagen til du lære en ting eller to . omkring hegn, materialer, bedste praksis og hegn entreprenører Alt hvad du virkelig skal gøre er at skride til handling og få uddannet om det . .
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